Survival Rates

What Are the Survival Rates for Melanoma?

Melanoma can be treated most effectively in its early stages when it is still confined to the top layer of the skin (epidermis). The deeper a melanoma penetrates into the lower layers of the skin (dermis), the greater the risk that it could or has spread to nearby lymph nodes or other organs. In recent years, clinical breakthroughs have led to new treatments that continue to improve the prognosis for people with advanced melanoma.

General Survival Rate Information

Five-year and ten-year survival rates tell you what percent of people (how many out of 100) live at least five years and ten years, respectively, after the cancer is found.

Statistics on the survival rates for people with melanoma are based on annual data from past cases and over multi-year timeframes. 

Because treatments for melanoma are more successful in early stages, it is informative to look at survival rates based on stage and stage subgroups (see below) rather than on the cancer as a whole.

It is important to remember that survival rates do not predict an individual’s survival. Every person and every case are different, and many factors contribute to an individual’s survival. It’s also important to remember that new and successful treatments have emerged over the last few years, and survival rates have increased in Stage III and Stage IV melanoma.

Survival Rates by Stage

Stage 0

When melanoma is found and treated early, the chances for long-term, disease-free survival are excellent. With treatment (surgical removal), patients with Stage 0 melanoma have a five- and ten-year overall survival rate of 99%-100%.[1]

Stage I

With the right surgery, patients with Stage I melanoma are considered at low risk for local recurrence or for regional and distant metastases. Despite the low risk, skin self-examinations and physical examinations for early detection of new or recurrent melanoma are important for Stage I survivors.

Large-scale studies have shown the following probabilities of melanoma-free survival. It is important to remember that statistics on the survival rates for people with melanoma are based on annual data from past cases and over multi-year timeframes. Survival rates do not predict your survival. 

Stage II

With treatment, Stage II melanoma is considered intermediate- to high-risk for local recurrence or distant metastasis. Skin self-examinations and physical examinations for early detection of new or recurrent melanoma are critical for Stage II survivors.

Large-scale studies have shown the following probabilities of melanoma-free survival. It is important to remember that statistics on the survival rates for people with melanoma are based on annual data from past cases and over multi-year timeframes. Survival rates do not predict your survival.

Stage III

With treatment, Stage III melanoma is considered intermediate- to high-risk for local recurrence or distant metastasis. Skin self-examinations and physical examinations for early detection of new or recurrent melanoma are critical. 

Large-scale studies have shown the following probabilities of melanoma free survival. It is important to remember that statistics on the survival rates for people with melanoma are based on annual data from past cases and over multi-year timeframes. Survival rates do not predict your survival.

Stage IV

The five-year survival rate for Stage IV melanoma was—one decade ago—about 15% to 20%. The ten-year survival rate was about 10% to 15%. Newer data about Stage IV survival suggest an improved survival rate: Early data from clinical trials of targeted therapy and combination immune therapy have demonstrated five-year survival rates ranging from 34-52% for this select group of patients.[2,3] While population-wide survival data in the era of newer agents is not available, these data are very encouraging for all melanoma patients.

It is important to remember that statistics on the survival rates for people with melanoma are based on annual data from past cases and over multi-year timeframes. Survival rates do not predict your survival. There are patients who survive Stage IV melanoma long-term. The survival prognosis is better if the melanoma has spread only to distant parts of the skin or distant lymph nodes rather than to other organs, and if the lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level is normal.

The following factors may provide a relatively more favorable prognosis:

• A limited number of sites of melanoma metastases
• Spread limited to soft tissues and lymph nodes rather than bone and vital organs
• Stage IV melanoma that does not develop until more than one year after treatment of earlier-stage melanoma
• A normal lactate dehydrogenase level (blood test)
• An observable and favorable response to treatment

Additional favorable patient factors include:

• A normal appetite
• Absence of nausea, vomiting, or fever
• The ability to conduct daily activities unimpaired
• Being female

References:

[1] Balch CM, et al. Final version of the American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging System for Cutaneous Melanoma. J Clin Oncol. 2001 [Internet]. [Cited 2020 June 24]; 19(16):3635-3648. DOI: 10.1200/JCO.2001.19.16.3635

[2] Larkin J, et al. Five-Year Survival with Combined Nivolumab and Ipilimumab in Advanced Melanoma. N Engl J Med 2019 [Internet]. 2019 Oct 17 [cited 2020 June 24]; 381:1535-1546. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1910836

[3] Robert C, et al. Five-Year Outcomes with Dabrafenib plus Trametinib in Metastatic Melanoma. N Engl J Med 2019 [Internet]. 2019 Aug 15 [cited 2020 June 24]; 381:626-636. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1904059